28 Oct 2008
Hang Seng plunged 1,600 points or 12.7% yesterday; it recovered 1,580 points or 14.3% today. Hang Seng went through a swing of about 3,000 points or 28% in the 2 days. Is this the wildest swing of Hang Seng's history? Is this an indication that Hang Seng has made a reversal?
According to record, Hang Seng made a similar swing during October 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis. On 28 October 1997, Hang Seng shed about 14% or 1,400 points to end the day at 9,060 points. The next day, on 29 October 1997, Hang Seng recovered 18.8% or 1,700 points as shown in the attached table.
A 3-year bull run pushed Hang Seng up about 10,000 points from 7,000 points in January 1995 to near 17,000 in August 1997. Then came the Asian Financial Crisis. This brought Hang Seng down to earth and made Hang Seng lost all the 10,000 points over next 12 months.
The October 1997 swing was then the largest swing since 1987. However, that swing did not manage to cause Hang Seng to make a total recovery. Hang Seng tanked for about 5 months after that and went down subsequently to recover in August 1998.
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